Polynya dynamics and associated atmospheric forcing at the Ronne Ice Shelf

The Ronne Ice Shelf is known as one of the most active regions of polynya developments around the Antarctic continent. Low temperatures are prevailing throughout the whole year, particularly in winter. It is generally recognized that polynya formations are primarily forced by offshore winds and secondarily by ocean currents. Many authors have addressed this issue previously at the Ross Ice Shelf and Adélie Coast and connected polynya dynamics to strong katabatic surge events. Such investigations of atmospheric dynamics and simultaneous polynya occurrence are still severely underrepresented for the southwestern part of the Weddell Sea and especially for the Ronne Ice Shelf. Due to the very flat terrain gradients of the ice shelf katabatic winds are of minor importance in that area. Other atmospheric processes must therefore play a crucial role for polynya developments at the Ronne Ice Shelf. High-resolution simulations have been carried out for the Weddell Sea region using the non-hydrostatic NWP model COSMO from the German Meteorological Service (DWD). For the austral autumn and winter (March to August) 2008 daily forecast simulations were conducted with the consideration of daily sea-ice coverage deduced from the passive microwave system AMSR-E. These simulations are used to analyze the synoptic and mesoscale atmospheric dynamics of the Weddell Sea region and find linkages to polynya occurrence at the Ronne Ice Shelf. For that reason, the relation between the surface wind speed, the synoptic pressure gradient in the free atmosphere and polynya area is investigated. Seven significant polynya events are identified for the simulation period, three in the autumn and four in the winter season. It can be shown that in almost all cases synoptic cyclones are the primary polynya forcing systems. In most cases the timely interaction of several passing cyclones in the northern and central Weddell Sea leads to maintenance of a strong synoptic pressure gradient above the Ronne Ice Shelf. This strong synoptic forcing results in a moderate to strong offshore surface wind. It turned out that these synoptic depressions lead to strong barrier winds above the northwestern Ronne Ice Shelf and along the eastern flank of the Antarctic Peninsula. The fact, that these barrier winds often appear prior or during the initial break up of sea ice at the shelf ice edge, suggest that this mesoscale wind phenomenon plays a crucial role for polynya development. Furthermore, even mesoscale cyclogenesis above the Ronne Ice Shelf and the following northeastward passage of such a system can break up sea-ice cover under large-scale stationary weather conditions

Simulation of the ABL over the North Water polynya and comparison with aircraft data

Simulations for Greenland with focus on the wind regime are presented using the high-resolution non-hydrostatic model COSMO (Consortium for Small scale modeling). The simulations are performed at 15 km, 5.5 km and 1.3 km resolution for the time period of June 2010. The Nares Strait, including the North Water (NOW) polynya, in northwest Greenland was selected as focus of the simulations, since comprehensive measurements of the structure of the boundary layer are available from an aircraft study. The observations on four different days show a shallow stable boundary layer over the polynya and a pronounced low-level jet associated with the flow channeling in the Nares Strait, particularly at Smith Sound. The reproduction of the vertical patterns of wind and temperature by the simulations is realistic at all resolutions and best results are found for 5.5 km and 1.3 km resolution. A vertical displacement of the patterns and an overestimation of the temperature was found. The measured low-level inversion is not simulated well, but overall the vertical structures of the simulation and observation correlate highly. Thus, the model is well suited for simulations in particular for the situation of flow channeling in a topographically complex area. The analysis of the synoptic situations associated with channeled flow through the Nares Strait shows that the wind speed increases with higher pressure difference between the Lincoln Sea and Baffin Bay. Channeling effects lead to a prevailing flow direction towards Baffin Bay. A strong increase of the wind speed occurs at Smith Sound, where the flow also passes over mountains of the Greenland coast. The wind maximum is found downstream of Smith Sound, and typical low-level jets with wind speeds of around 20 m/s occur at a height of 100 m

Impact of coastal polynyas on dense shelf water formation in the Weddell Sea

Dense shelf water is an essential ingredient to the formation of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW). It is formed on the continental shelves surrounding Antarctica, when freezing rates are sufficiently high to push ocean salinity to values of 34.65 and higher. Coastal polynyas, where the ice is driven away from the coastline, maintain the highest freezing rates in Antarctic winter. Since theWeddell Sea is considered the most productive source region of AABW, we investigate the dense water formation on the continental shelves of the southwestern Weddell Sea, with a focus on the role of coastal polynyas, using the Finite Element Sea ice-Ocean Model (FESOM), a primitive-equation, hydrostatic ocean model coupled with a dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model. The horizontal resolution of the global, unstructured mesh is up to 3 km at the southwestern Weddell Sea coastline; in vertical direction the mesh features 37 depth levels (resolution increases toward the surface). The model was initialized on 01/01/1980 with data from the Polar Hydrographic Climatology and forced with NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data. The 20-year period 1990-2009 is used for analysis. Our results indicate that in an average year, the polynya freezing rates of 9 cm d--1 (corresponding to a salt input of 2.5 kg m--2d--1) cause a seasonal variation in salinity of 0.3 psu under the Ronne polynya and result in the production of 5.10-4 km-3 dense shelf water, which leaves the continental shelf (outlined by the 700 m isobath in this study) at a long-term mean volume flux of 5.2 Sv. Some of this water contributes to the formation of Weddell Sea Deep/BottomWater, but a large fraction is diluted by mixing with ambient water and leaves the Weddell Sea at intermediate levels

Quantifying polynya ice production in the Laptev Sea with the COSMO model

Arctic flaw polynyas are considered to be highly productive areas for the formation of sea-ice throughout the winter season. Most estimates of sea-ice production are based on the surface energy balance equation and use global reanalyses as atmospheric forcing, which are too coarse to take into account the impact of polynyas on the atmosphere. Additional errors in the estimates of polynya ice production may result from the methods of calculating atmospheric energy fluxes and the assumption of a thin-ice distribution within polynyas. The present study uses simulations using the mesoscale weather prediction model of the Consortium for Small-scale Modelling (COSMO), where polynya area is prescribed from satellite data. The polynya area is either assumed to be ice-free or to be covered with thin ice of 10 cm. Simulations have been performed for two winter periods (2007/08 and 2008/09). When using a realistic thin-ice thickness of 10 cm, sea-ice production in Laptev polynyas amount to 30 km3 and 73 km3 for the winters 2007/08 and 2008/09, respectively. The higher turbulent energy fluxes of open-water polynyas result in a 50-70% increase in sea-ice production (49 km3 in 2007/08 and 123 km3 in 2008/09). Our results suggest that previous studies have overestimated ice production in the Laptev Sea

Long-term analysis of Atmosphere-Ocean-Ice interactions in Laptev Sea polynyas using high-resolution NWP simulations

The Laptev Sea area of the Siberian Arctic is known as a region of high polynya activities throughout the winter season. We analyze the impact of open-water and thin-ice covered polynyas on heat and moisture fluxes and the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) using downscaled NWP simulations. ERA-Interim reanalysis data are used as forcing for dynamically downscaled COSMO runs with 15 and 5 km horizontal resolution. Sea ice information is taken from AMSR-E data and the period of investigation is 2002-2011. Our results clearly prove that polynyas moisten and heat the air downwind the polynya (up to several hundred kilometers) and additionally increase cloudiness. The analysis of surface energy balance components shows the sensible heat flux H0 as the largest contributor to ice production. Mean monthly H0 over polynyas is about 150 W/m2 for Dec.-Feb. 2002-2011. This is about three times higher than the energy loss by net radiation. Small polynyas have the largest heat loss (and ice production) per surface unit. In comparison with most previous studies our results suggest that most preceding studies overestimated the polynya ice production of the Laptev Sea

Association between polymorphisms in NOS3 and KCNH2 and social memory

Social memory, including the ability to recognize faces and voices, is essential for social relationships. It has a large heritable component, but the knowledge about the contributing genes is sparse. The genetic variation underlying inter-individual differences in social memory was investigated in an exploratory sample (n=55), genotyped with a chip comprising approximately 200.000 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), and in a validation sample (n=582), where 30 SNPs were targeted. In the exploratory study face identity recognition was measured. The validation study also measured vocal sound recognition, as well as recognition of faces and vocal sounds combined (multimodal condition). In the exploratory study, the 30 SNPs that were associated with face recognition at puncorrected<0.001 and located in genes, were chosen for further study. In the validation study two of the SNPs showed significant associations with recognition of faces, vocal sounds, and multimodal stimuli: rs1800779 in the gene encoding nitric oxide synthase 3 (NOS3) and rs3807370 in the gene encoding the voltage-gated channel, subfamily H, member 2 (KCNH2), in strong linkage disequilibrium with each other. The uncommon alleles were associated with superior performance, and the effects were present for men only (p<0.0002). The exploratory study also showed a weaker but significant association with (non-emotional) word recognition, an effect that was independent of the effect on face recognition. This study demonstrates evidence for an association between NOS3 and KCNH2 SNPs and social memory

Quantitative CT analysis of lung parenchyma to improve malignancy risk estimation in incidental pulmonary nodules.

OBJECTIVES To assess the value of quantitative computed tomography (QCT) of the whole lung and nodule-bearing lobe regarding pulmonary nodule malignancy risk estimation. METHODS A total of 251 subjects (median [IQR] age, 65 (57-73) years; 37% females) with pulmonary nodules on non-enhanced thin-section CT were retrospectively included. Twenty percent of the nodules were malignant, the remainder benign either histologically or at least 1-year follow-up. CT scans were subjected to in-house software, computing parameters such as mean lung density (MLD) or peripheral emphysema index (pEI). QCT variable selection was performed using logistic regression; selected variables were integrated into the Mayo Clinic and the parsimonious Brock Model. RESULTS Whole-lung analysis revealed differences between benign vs. malignant nodule groups in several parameters, e.g. the MLD (-766 vs. -790 HU) or the pEI (40.1 vs. 44.7 %). The proposed QCT model had an area-under-the-curve (AUC) of 0.69 (95%-CI, 0.62-0.76) based on all available data. After integrating MLD and pEI into the Mayo Clinic and Brock Model, the AUC of both clinical models improved (AUC, 0.91 to 0.93 and 0.88 to 0.91, respectively). The lobe-specific analysis revealed that the nodule-bearing lobes had less emphysema than the rest of the lung regarding benign (EI, 0.5 vs. 0.7 %; p < 0.001) and malignant nodules (EI, 1.2 vs. 1.7 %; p = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Nodules in subjects with higher whole-lung metrics of emphysema and less fibrosis are more likely to be malignant; hereby the nodule-bearing lobes have less emphysema. QCT variables could improve the risk assessment of incidental pulmonary nodules. KEY POINTS • Nodules in subjects with higher whole-lung metrics of emphysema and less fibrosis are more likely to be malignant. • The nodule-bearing lobes have less emphysema compared to the rest of the lung. • QCT variables could improve the risk assessment of incidental pulmonary nodules

A Nested Case-Control Study of Intrauterine Exposure to Persistent Organochlorine Pollutants in Relation to Risk of Type 1 Diabetes

BACKGROUND: The incidence of type 1 diabetes in Europe is increasing at a rate of about 3% per year and there is also an increasing incidence throughout the world. Type 1 diabetes is a complex disease caused by multiple genetic and environmental factors. Persistent organochlorine pollutants (POPs) have been suggested as a triggering factor for developing childhood type 1 diabetes. The aim of this case-control study was to assess possible impacts of in utero exposure to POPs on type 1 diabetes. METHODOLOGY/ PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The study was performed as a case-control study within a biobank in Malmö, a city located in the Southern part of Sweden. The study included 150 cases (children who had their diagnosis mostly before 18 years of age) and 150 controls, matched for gender and day of birth. 2,2',4,4',5,5'-hexachlorobiphenyl (PCB-153) and the major DDT metabolite 1,1-dichloro-2,2-bis (p-chlorophenyl)-ethylene (p,p'-DDE) were used as a biomarkers for POP exposure. When comparing the quartile with the highest maternal serum concentrations of PCB-153 with the other quartiles, an odds ratio (OR) of 0.73 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.42, 1.27) was obtained. Similar results was obtained for p,p'-DDE (OR 0.56, 95% CI 0.29, 1.08). CONCLUSIONS: The hypothesis that in utero exposure to POPs will trigger the risk for developing type 1 diabetes was not supported by the results. The risk estimates did, although not statistically significant, go in the opposite direction. However, it is not reasonable to believe that exposure to POPs should protect against type 1 diabetes